In a significant advancement for agricultural forecasting, the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) has utilized its satellite technology to estimate India’s wheat production. According to a study by the space agency, the total wheat production from eight major wheat-growing states is projected to be a robust 122.724 million tonnes for the 2024-25 Rabi season .
This forecast was generated using data collected as of March 31, 2025, demonstrating the growing role of space technology in ensuring national food security .
The CROP Framework
The forecast is a product of the Comprehensive Remote Sensing Observation on Crop Progress (CROP) framework . Developed by ISRO’s National Remote Sensing Centre (NRSC), CROP is a semi-automated and scalable system that enables near real-time monitoring of crop sowing and harvesting across India .
For this assessment, the system used optical and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) remote sensing data from multiple satellites, including EOS-04 (RISAT-1A), EOS-06 (Oceansat-3), and Resourcesat-2A, to track the progress of the wheat crop during the Rabi season .
Key Findings of the Study
The satellite-based analysis highlighted several key figures:
- Sown Area: The wheat sown area derived from satellite data by March 31, 2025, stood at 330.8 lakh hectares. This figure is very close to the statistics generated by the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare (324.38 lakh hectares as of February 4, 2025), validating the accuracy of the space-based observations .
- Production Estimate: By assimilating satellite-derived parameters (like crop area, sowing date, and crop condition) into a crop growth simulation model, ISRO estimated the total wheat production from the eight major states at 122.724 million tonnes .
Monitoring the Crop Cycle
The CROP framework not only estimates production but also provides crucial insights into the crop’s health throughout the season. The monthly monitoring of the Vegetation Health Index (VHI) indicated that while there were initial concerns about heat stress in February, the crop conditions were stable by the end of March . This comprehensive monitoring allows for timely interventions and informed decision-making for agricultural planning and food security .
Integration with National Initiatives
The work done by ISRO is part of a larger national effort to modernize Indian agriculture. The Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers’ Welfare, in collaboration with ISRO, is actively using space technology for various applications .
A key initiative is the FASAL (Forecasting Agricultural output using Space, Agro-meteorology and Land-based observations) project, which provides pre-harvest production estimates for 11 major crops across the country, including wheat . This integration of satellite imagery with ground-based and agro-meteorological data helps generate more accurate and timely yield predictions .
