India’s rice stocks in government warehouses rose 15% from a year ago to a record high for the start of June, while wheat stocks reached a five-year peak driven by increased farmer procurement, official data showed on Tuesday .
Record grain reserves
State reserves of rice, including unmilled paddy, totalled a record 68.43 million metric tonnes as of June 1, far exceeding the government’s target of 13.5 million tonnes for July 1 . Wheat stocks stood at 53.41 million tonnes on June 1, nearly double the official target of 27.6 million tonnes and the highest level since 2021 .
This marks a significant shift from recent years when India held large rice stocks while facing tight wheat supplies. This year, the country has abundant inventories of both grains .
Boost for exports and price stability
The record reserves provide the government with significant policy flexibility. Record rice stocks will help the world’s biggest exporter increase shipments despite concerns over rainfall due to an El Nino weather pattern, while improved wheat inventories will help the federal government tame any price spikes by increasing open market sales .
“Rice stocks are more than adequate. That should give the government the confidence to continue exports despite forecasts of below-normal rainfall, which could affect production,” said a New Delhi-based dealer at a global trading firm .
India, which accounts for around 40% of global rice exports, removed the last of its export curbs on the grain in March 2025 . “The government surprised the market by procuring 35 million tonnes of wheat. It is now in a comfortable position and can release stocks aggressively into the market to keep prices in check,” a Mumbai-based dealer said .
Record production fuels stocks
India’s rice and wheat production reached record highs in the 2025/26 crop year, at 154.02 million tonnes and 120.66 million tonnes respectively, as ample monsoon rainfall encouraged farmers to expand acreage .
El Nino concerns remain
However, concerns remain over the impact of El Nino on the upcoming kharif season. The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation has warned that the newly established El Nino phase could weaken India’s summer monsoon and put rainfed crops such as rice and maize under stress .
Despite these concerns, India’s current stock levels provide a significant buffer against potential supply disruptions and price volatility in the months ahead .
