India’s coffee production for the 2026-27 crop year (starting October) is likely to decline by about 4% to 3.68 lakh tonnes (6.14 million 60-kg bags) due to unfavorable weather conditions, according to a recent report by the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) local office in Mumbai.
The projected output comprises 93,600 tonnes (1.56 million bags) of Arabica and 2.74 lakh tonnes (4.58 million bags) of Robusta. For the current 2025-26 crop year, the USDA has maintained production estimates at around 3.84 lakh tonnes (6.4 million bags).
Below-normal rain and heat impact Arabica
The USDA report attributes the expected decline primarily to weather volatility, which is anticipated to hit the premium Arabica beans harder than the hardier Robusta variety.
According to the report, below-normal monsoon rainfall combined with unusually high temperatures in key growing regions is expected to adversely affect flowering and fruit-set. “Timely rains in March and April supported flowering and early crop development, but recent extreme heat has increased moisture stress and evapotranspiration,” the report said. “Erratic, light showers have been insufficient to stabilize conditions, raising concerns over fruit set.”
While Arabica (which accounts for about 25% of production) faces a significant yield decline, Robusta output is projected to remain relatively strong. The report notes that below-normal rainfall is expected to be broadly favorable for robusta, as it helps lower the incidence of fungal diseases that thrive in prolonged wet conditions.
Yield projections
Supporting these concerns, the USDA has projected an 8% decline in Arabica yields at 452 kg per hectare for 2026-27. Robusta yields are also expected to fall, albeit marginally by 2% to 1,239 kg per hectare.
Beyond weather, the report cites “aging trees, white stem borer incidence and reduced agricultural inputs as additional headwinds for arabica productivity.”
Rising domestic consumption
Interestingly, while production faces headwinds, domestic coffee consumption is on the rise. The USDA projects India’s coffee consumption during 2026-27 at 94,800 tonnes (1.58 million bags), supported by strong demand for soluble or instant coffees.
“Soluble coffee is expected to account for a significantly larger share of household consumption, rising to around 73% next year,” the report noted. It added that domestic soluble coffee manufacturers recorded double-digit growth recently and remain optimistic about continued expansion, especially as India’s per capita coffee consumption of 0.04 kg remains well below the global average of 1.3 kg.
Export outlook remains strong
Despite the production dip, the report forecasts a slight increase in exports. Coffee exports are projected to rise to 3.73 lakh tonnes (6.22 million 60-kg bags), supported by higher exportable surplus from previous years, strong global demand, and recently implemented free trade agreements with the UK and EFTA nations.
Italy remains India’s largest coffee buyer, followed by Germany, Russia, and Belgium. The Indian coffee industry exports about 70-80% of its total production.
Way forward
India’s Coffee Board is yet to announce its initial crop projections for 2026-27. However, the USDA’s latest assessment serves as an early warning for the sector, which employs over a million people through its plantation and processing network.
