When India overtook China as the world‘s largest producer of rice in 2025, policymakers celebrated the milestone as a testament to resilient farmers and effective government policy . With annual exports crossing 20 million metric tons—nearly double the volume a decade ago—India now accounts for a staggering 40 per cent of global rice trade .
But beneath this agricultural success story lies a deepening water crisis that threatens the very foundation of India’s rice economy .
The Cost of a Grain of Rice
In Punjab and Haryana, India‘s rice heartland, farmers report that groundwater accessible at 30 feet a decade ago now lies between 80 and 200 feet below the surface . “Every year, the borewell has to go deeper,” said Balkar Singh, a 50-year-old farmer in Haryana. “It’s getting too expensive” .
Producing a single kilogram of rice in India consumes 3,000 to 4,000 litres of water — 20 to 60 per cent more than the global average . While the national average water footprint ranges between 1,500 and 2,000 litres per kilogram, Punjab and Haryana record figures as high as 2,672 litres per kilogram due to intensive irrigation practices .
Government data for 2024 and 2025 shows that these two states extract between 35 and 57 per cent more groundwater annually than aquifers can naturally replenish . Large parts of both states are now classified as either “over-exploited” or at “critical” levels .
A Policy Trap
The crisis is perpetuated by government policies designed to ensure food security. The minimum support price for rice has climbed by roughly 70 per cent over the past decade, while heavy power subsidies encourage farmers to pump groundwater without restraint .
Avinash Kishore at the International Food Policy Research Institute noted that “one of the world‘s most water-stressed countries is paying farmers to consume vast amounts of precious groundwater” .
Georgetown University’s Uday Chandra added that these subsidies actively discourage farmers from switching to less water-intensive crops .
Attempts at reform have proven politically perilous. When Prime Minister Narendra Modi proposed agricultural law changes in 2020, millions of farmers protested, forcing a rare government retreat .
The Invisible Export
Beyond domestic depletion, India‘s rice trade exports “virtual water” — the water embedded in agricultural commodities — at an alarming scale. Research from Anna University found that between 2006 and 2016, India exported an average of 26 billion litres of virtual water annually . More recent studies from IFPRI confirm that the 16 million tonnes of rice exported in 2023-24 sent roughly 40 billion cubic metres of virtual water abroad — equivalent to 17 per cent of India‘s annual groundwater extraction .
A study published in the IOP Conference Series notes that India is the world‘s largest extractor of groundwater, more than the United States and China combined, yet its agricultural export policies remain misaligned with its water situation .
Small Farmers Pay the Price
The burden falls hardest on marginal growers. Sukhwinder Singh, a 76-year-old farmer in Punjab, spent between 30,000 and 40,000 rupees last summer on longer pipes and more powerful pumps just to continue cultivating rice .
“If costs keep rising each season, it looks like they will soon become unsustainable,” he said .
Wealthier farmers with larger plots can manage these rising costs and navigate subsidy systems, but subsistence growers face disproportionate hardship as every extra rupee of cultivation eats into their meagre incomes .
Searching for Solutions
Policymakers have begun exploring alternatives. Haryana launched a subsidy of 17,500 rupees per hectare to encourage farmers to shift to water-efficient millets, which are gaining popularity in urban India for their health benefits . However, the incentive is currently limited to a single growing season and has failed to drive large-scale adoption .
Ashok Gulati, a farm economist who previously advised the government on crop prices, argues that at least five years of support would be necessary to encourage a meaningful transition away from rice . His research suggests that Punjab could redirect a portion of the 39,000 rupees it spends on fertilizer and power subsidies per hectare of rice to incentivise less water-intensive crops while maintaining farmer incomes .
ICRISAT research emphasises the need for region-specific approaches, noting that northeastern states with abundant rainfall rely on rain-fed paddy cultivation with water footprints ranging from 1,155 to 2,660 litres per kilogram, highlighting the potential for more sustainable sourcing zones .
A study in Springer’s Environment, Development and Sustainability journal advocates for increased consumption of “green water” (rain-fed) through improved management strategies to boost “blue water” availability .
Farmers themselves are not opposed to change. Gurmeet Singh, a rice grower in Punjab, said: “The land of Punjab and Haryana is fertile and we as farmers are willing to switch… provided the government buys our produce at state support prices” .
