The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow but vital maritime corridor connecting the Persian Gulf to global markets, has become the epicenter of a growing agricultural crisis. Following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a full naval blockade of Iranian ports, shipments of fertilizers—essential for global food production—have ground to a near halt.
The blockade, announced on April 13, 2026, threatens to deepen an already unprecedented crisis in one of the world’s most important energy-producing regions. Transits through the strait have dwindled to single digits per day, down from about 135 in peacetime.
One-Third of Global Fertilizer Trade at Risk
According to the United Nations, approximately one-third of the world’s fertilizer travels through the Strait of Hormuz. This includes:
- Nitrogen fertilizers, which require liquefied natural gas for production
- Phosphate fertilizers, made from urea, ammonia, and sulfur
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates that between 20 and 30 percent of global fertilizer supplies pass through the strait or depend on natural gas exported via the waterway.
The Middle East is a particularly dominant supplier of nitrogen-based fertilizers. The region accounts for approximately 42 percent of global urea exports and 27 percent of global ammonia exports.
Prices Already Spiking
Even before the blockade was fully implemented, fertilizer prices had surged dramatically. According to data from S&P Global Platts:
- Middle East granular urea prices rose to $604–710 per metric ton by March 19, up from $436–494 before the conflict began on February 28.
- Southeast Asian granular urea reached $750 per metric ton, compared to $490–498 in late February.
- US nitrogen fertilizer prices at the Port of New Orleans jumped approximately 32 percent within a week, from $516 to $683 per metric ton.
J.P. Morgan Research reports that global nitrogen fertilizer benchmarks have increased between 25 and 50 percent depending on the product and region since the end of February.
FAO Warns of ‘Agrifood Catastrophe’
The FAO has issued stark warnings about the potential consequences of a prolonged disruption. Chief Economist Maximo Torero stated that “the clock is ticking,” emphasizing that poorer countries are most at risk due to their crop calendars and dependence on imported inputs.
Key warnings from the FAO include:
- Lower crop yields in the current and next planting seasons if farmers are forced to proceed without adequate fertilizer
- Higher food commodity prices and retail food inflation likely for the next several years
- Risk of farmer bankruptcies, which would create longer-term supply problems
- Potential for a “perfect storm” if the crisis coincides with a strong El Niño event
David Laborde, Director of FAO’s Agrifood Economics Division, warned: “We are in an input crisis; we don’t want to make it a catastrophe.”
China’s Export Ban Adds to Pressure
Compounding the crisis, China has announced plans to halt exports of sulfuric acid starting in May 2026.
Sulfuric acid is essential for:
- Phosphate fertilizer production
- Copper extraction and refining
The Middle East produces one-third of the world’s sulfur, a raw material used to make sulfuric acid. With shipments blocked through the Strait of Hormuz, Chinese authorities are conserving domestic supplies for the peak crop-planting season.
Impact on Farmers and Food Prices
For Farmers
The timing of the crisis could not be worse. As one analyst observed, “Literally, this could not happen at a worse time of the year” for spring planting in the Northern Hemisphere.
Farmers face several difficult choices:
- Pay significantly higher prices for available fertilizer
- Reduce application rates, which will lower yields
- Shift acres from nitrogen-intensive crops like corn to soybeans (which fix their own nitrogen)
- Leave fields unplanted in extreme cases
For Consumers
The impact on food prices will come with a lag, typically six to nine months after the fertilizer shock. However, the effects could be severe:
- J.P. Morgan estimates the crisis could lift global food inflation temporarily to 4–5 percent.
- The UN World Food Programme warns that if military actions continue and oil prices remain above $100 per barrel, an additional 45 million people could face severe food shortages.
A Three-Stage Shock to Global Agriculture
Analysts have identified a three-stage shock unfolding from the crisis:
| Stage | Impact | Timeline |
|---|---|---|
| First Shock | Fertilizer prices spike | Already occurring |
| Second Shock | Crop yields decline due to reduced fertilizer use | Expected fall 2026 |
| Third Shock | Food inflation hits consumers | Projected 2027 |
Unlike oil, which has strategic reserves in many countries, urea and other fertilizers lack strategic stockpiles. There are no alternative pipelines or widespread military护航 mechanisms for fertilizer shipments.
Market Reactions and India’s Vulnerability
Financial markets have reacted swiftly to the crisis. Fertilizer company stocks in India—the world’s second-largest fertilizer consumer after China—tanked up to 5 percent on April 13.
Affected companies include:
- Coromandel International
- Paradeep Phosphates
- Rashtriya Chemicals & Fertilizers
- National Fertilizers
- Deepak Fertilizers
India depends heavily on imports of both raw materials and finished fertilizer products from the Middle East, making it particularly vulnerable to the blockade.
What Can Be Done?
The FAO has urged governments and international financial institutions to take immediate anticipatory actions:
- Avoid export restrictions on energy and fertilizers
- Reassess biofuel mandates that divert crops from food to fuel
- Provide financing to vulnerable countries through IMF facilities and the proposed Food Import Financing Facility
- Pursue diplomatic solutions to reopen the strait
As Torero emphasized: “The risks are very clear. If we don’t accelerate, the risks will exacerbate.”
A Narrow Window to Act
The Strait of Hormuz blockade represents one of the most serious threats to global food security since the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2022 Ukraine war. While global food stocks from last year’s harvest provide a temporary buffer, that protection is rapidly thinning.
Farmers are making planting decisions now. If fertilizer-laden vessels cannot move through the strait in the coming weeks, the world will face lower crop yields, higher food prices, and increased hunger—particularly in the world’s poorest nations.
The crisis is not inevitable, but the window to prevent it is closing fast. As the FAO’s David Laborde stated: “The difference between an input crisis and a catastrophe depends on the actions we take today.”
