The July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report is due Friday, July 10. Here is what farmers need to know about U.S. corn, soybean, and wheat markets
The July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is due Friday, July 10. Going into the report, here is what farmers need to know about the U.S. corn, soybean, and wheat markets, and what Grain Market Insider will be looking for in the updated balance sheets.
The June WASDE report showed U.S. old-crop corn carryout increasing by 3 million bushels, while old-crop soybeans and wheat remained unchanged. The new-crop ending stocks estimate for corn decreased by 3 million bushels, soybeans were unchanged, and wheat stocks were reduced by 18 million.
Corn market expectations
Over the past month, export demand has remained strong and continues to exceed the USDA’s projected pace for the 2025/2026 crop year. Total sales commitments are at 101% of the USDA’s current forecast for the crop year compared with the five-year average of 95% by this point in the year. Export inspections are at 82% of the USDA’s current estimate compared with the five-year average of 80%.
Grain Market Insider thinks there is a good chance this week’s report will show old-crop corn exports increased and ethanol production unchanged. No demand or yield adjustments for new-crop corn are expected.
Soybean market outlook
Soybean export inspections and export sales have remained in line with the five-year average pace. Soybean crush for May was 213 million bushels, down from 218 million in April but above the 204 million crushed in May 2025.
Grain Market Insider does not expect any adjustments to old-crop soybean demand or ending stocks estimates. New-crop ending stocks are likely to be raised, reflecting the higher planted acreage in the June 30 acreage report. Grain Market Insider expects the ending stocks projection for new-crop soybeans to increase by 30 million bushels, to 340 million.
Considerations for the wheat market
Since early June, export sales for the 2026/2027 crop year have remained in line with projections. The current sales pace of 27% of the USDA’s current estimate for the crop year is in line with the five-year average.
Grain Market Insider expects the 2026/2027 ending stocks projection to be reduced by 40 million bushels, to 704 million, reflecting the lower acreage estimates in the June 30 Acreage report.
Historical patterns and statistical perspective
Based on data from 2000–2023, Grain Market Insider’s internal research indicates market volatility on the July WASDE report day tends to be in the middle of the range for corn, soybeans, and wheat.
For corn: The July report has a 64% likelihood of triggering a positive market reaction, the highest of all reports. The average absolute change is 7¢. The average positive net change on report day is 7¢, while the average negative net change is 6¢.
For soybeans: The July report has a 68% likelihood of triggering a positive reaction, also the highest of all reports. The average absolute change is 8¢. Positive reactions generate an average bounce of 8¢ compared with an average decline of 9¢.
For wheat: The July report has a 55% likelihood of triggering a positive reaction. Positive reactions generate an average gain of 12¢, while negative reactions trigger an average 7¢ loss.
