Urbana, Illinois: Consistent with “Crop Loss” headlines dating to 2023, combined loss at harvest totalled $28.1 billion for producing the U.S. 2025 cost of production (COP) crops — barley, corn, oats, peanuts, rice, seed cotton, sorghum, soybeans and wheat. However, all but $3.7 billion of that loss was covered by the U.S. crop safety net, according to an analysis by Carl Zulauf and Henrique Monaco .
Breaking Even Over Three Years
Moreover, the nine crops collectively broke even over the 2023-2025 crop years, as $62.5 billion in safety net payments offset similar market losses at harvest. This breakeven includes an opportunity cost charge for owned land (land not rented) and unpaid farm family labour .
Historical Perspective
The U.S. crop safety net covered 98% of harvest market losses during the long period of consecutive losses between 1981 and 2006. During the more recent 2014-2020 period of consecutive losses, the safety net covered slightly more than harvest losses. Net return for 2023-2025 falls between these two prior periods .
Implications: Is the Sector in Distress?
Recent U.S. crop safety net policy has been operated to eliminate field crop sector losses. The authors argue it is thus hard to argue that the U.S. field crop sector is in financial distress .
“Yes, individual farms are under stress and going bankrupt. But profitability always varies across farms, with some operating at a loss while others earn a profit,” the analysis states. “Thus, if the sector is covering all costs, more than a few farms, maybe even a majority, are making money, and some are likely making lots of money. Farmers making money are usually quiet” .
The Policy Questions
A safety net that eliminates field crop sector losses reinforces the importance of a question raised in a February 2026 farmdoc daily piece: Has the U.S. crop safety net become excessive?
The authors argue sector losses may be distasteful but are important in a market economy. Without sector losses, inefficiency gains the upper hand, leading to a growing lack of competitiveness — and they point to a large body of articles noting declines in U.S. field crop competitiveness and share of world production and trade .
With the sector breaking even, costs have no reason to decline. The U.S. crop all input price index was 10% higher in August 2026 than August 2023, and 1% higher after removing inflation .
Removing field crop sector losses also enhances cropland’s attractiveness as a risk-reducing component of a well-diversified investment portfolio — raising the question of whether the U.S. wants an agriculture in which owning cropland requires a well-diversified portfolio .
The analysis concludes with a key policy question: What sector loss is appropriate to facilitate the field crop sector the U.S. wants in its future?
