Washington: The Trump administration’s newly announced $8 billion Harvest Fuel Relief Program could push federal payments to U.S. farmers to an unprecedented $55.4 billion in 2026, according to an analysis by Progressive Farmer’s Chris Clayton, based on USDA’s earlier net farm income forecast with the $8 billion added to it .
The highest previous aid year was $45.6 billion in 2020, driven by trade aid and pandemic payments. The projected $55.4 billion would make up just under one-third of USDA’s total 2026 net farm income forecast, and would be only $10 billion less than combined government payments in 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 .
A Conditional Projection
The $55.4 billion number presumes the new diesel aid payments go out to farmers by the end of the calendar year. However, USDA has so far offered few details on the timeline. Politico reported, citing three people close to the plans, that farmers won’t know how much money to expect for several more weeks — and even then, payments won’t arrive until late November or early December at the earliest .
The Context Behind the Aid
The Wall Street Journal’s Patrick Thomas reported that government funding has played a bigger role supporting farm incomes over the past decade, with trade war-related payouts, pandemic rescue funding, and checks to help farmers deal with low crop prices. During this year’s conflict in the Middle East, farmers have had to shell out more cash for fuel to run equipment and fertilizer for planting .
Diesel prices surged globally as the U.S.-Iran conflict constrained fuel exports through the Strait of Hormuz. Retail prices in the U.S. hit a record $6.50 a gallon in September, creating political headaches ahead of midterm elections .
Criticism From Farm Groups and Economists
Not everyone welcomed the announcement. Aaron Lehman, president of the Iowa Farmers Union, described the aid as a “Band-Aid response” that would not address the policy choices driving farmers’ financial problems. “Farmers never should have been put in this position,” he said. “A Band-Aid response now, two weeks before the election, doesn’t fix the problem” .
Gbenga Ajilore, chief economist at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and a former USDA rural development adviser, said the president’s aid announcement ahead of the midterm elections follows a pattern in which the president’s policies harm farmers, then he spends taxpayer funds to offset the damage caused. Ajilore pointed to the $28 billion in aid under the Market Facilitation Program because of the 2018-19 trade war with China .
Farm Action noted the $12 billion Farmer Bridge Assistance payments last spring, followed by $13.8 billion in ARC/PLC payments going out this month. “Another multibillion-dollar bailout is further evidence of an agricultural economy in crisis,” the group stated .
Political Timing
Politico reported that with two weeks to go before the election, the new aid may arrive too late to convince some voters. But top Republicans are banking on the announcement to stem GOP bleeding in farm states — especially in the Midwest, where Kansas Senator Roger Marshall, Iowa GOP Senate nominee Ashley Hinson and Michigan GOP Senate nominee Mike Rogers have been struggling in their campaigns .
